Ignore the Busywork—These 3 Numbers Can Help Predict Your 2026 Revenue
"Mareaka, we want to hit $2M next year, but I have no clue if that’s realistic or just wishful thinking. What should I be looking at now to build a real forecast?"
The truth? Revenue isn’t random.
It leaves a trail. If you want to set smart goals for 2026, now’s the time to follow that trail—before the year ends and your data gets stale.
Most roofing and HVAC owners stay stuck reacting to jobs and hoping next year is better.
But if you look at the right numbers in Q4, you can actually predict what’s coming.
Better yet, you can shape it—adjust pricing, staffing, and marketing based on real patterns, not gut feel.
What You’ll Learn in This Article
Why revenue forecasting isn’t guesswork
The 3 metrics that unlock your 2026 potential
How to extract insights from this year’s data
Why top contractors use Q4 to plan hiring, pricing, and more
Before we dive into it, let me introduce myself if we haven’t met yet.
I’m Mareaka from Bunch Accounting, and I specialize in helping roofing and HVAC business owners like you make confident, profitable decisions.
If you skip forecasting, you’re flying blind into next year.
You might over-hire, underprice, or miss out on your best lead sources.
Smart contractors use Q4 to look ahead—not just clean up the past.
A 20-minute data review now could steer every big decision you make next year.
Real Money on the Line
One HVAC business that tracked crew revenue and close rates realized they were spending 80% of their ad budget on a lead source with a 19% close rate.
They shifted spend, adjusted pricing, and boosted revenue by $340K the following year.
Step-by-Step Fix
Want to forecast with confidence? Start with these 3 numbers:
Average Monthly Revenue Per Crew: Look at what each crew produced this year. Multiply that by your projected crew count next year.
Close Rate Per Lead Source: Break down leads and closes by source (Google Ads, referrals, social). Drop the losers, double down on the winners.
Gross Profit by Service Line: Don’t just track total revenue. Know which services drive actual profit—then build your pricing and marketing around them.
Why Q3/Q4 Is Prime Time to Forecast
Your data’s fresh, trends are still in play, and you’ve got just enough time to make end-of-year moves.
Waiting until tax season means it’s too late to use the info strategically.
July to December is your window.
A roofing contractor doing $1.1M/year, we tracked that his re-roofing crews averaged $92K/month, while his repair team barely cleared $38K. After shifting his 2024 hires to focus on re-roofing and cutting low-close-rate ad spend, he set to hit $1.5M this year—with less stress.
Get Your Free Guide
Want to build a clear, confident forecast for 2026? Let’s break down your 3 key numbers together.
We help roofer and HVAC contractors set up tracking and reporting that finally shows what their numbers are really sharing.
Book a Profit and Tax Analysis and we’ll map out the data behind your next growth leap.
Let us know what you think in the comments!
