How Roofers Can Stay Profitable When Insurance Payouts Drop
"Mareaka, I keep hearing about these ACV and RPS insurance updates happening during January 2026 renewal season - how could this impact me?"
Starting January 2026, insurance jobs won’t look the same.
Lower payouts.
Slower claims.
Stricter red tape.
If your roofing business leans hard on insurance work, this isn’t just a minor policy tweak — it’s a full shift in how money moves in your business.
New ACV and RPS rules are going to cut into profits.
Period.
What used to be a reliable 25% profit margin on storm or restoration work could drop to 10% or less.
You’ll be dealing with smaller checks, longer payment cycles, and more hoops to jump through.
That means the old way of forecasting insurance income?
It's out the window.
What We're Talking About
What’s changing in 2026 and why it matters to your roofing business
How to stress-test your numbers before insurance cuts hit
Why you need to diversify your job mix now, not later
A simple 4-step method to forecast tighter cash flow and stay ahead
Before we dive into it, let me introduce myself if we haven’t met yet.
I’m Mareaka from Bunch Accounting, and I specialize in helping roofing and HVAC business owners like you make confident, profitable decisions.
If your crews rely on insurance jobs to stay busy, the squeeze is coming.
Payment timing will lag.
Profit margins will shrink.
And if you're not planning now, your 2026 season might leave you overworked and underpaid.
You can’t afford to walk into next year with blind optimism.
If you wait to pivot until you feel the pain, it’ll be too late to recover.
Reality Check
I worked with a storm restoration contractor who ran 80% of his business on insurance jobs.
After a small claims policy shift in his state, his average profit per job dropped by 40% in one season.
It took him 6 months to adjust, and he burned through a credit line just to float payroll.
Now imagine that, but across the whole country.
So what to do?
Here’s how to prep now so your 2026 doesn’t blindside you:
Review Your Insurance Job History
Pull all 2024-2025 insurance workTrack close rate, average job size, profit per job
Model a Drop
Reduce your close rate by 10–20%Reduce payouts by another 10%
This is a realistic scenario with the new rules
Run a Cash Flow Stress Test
What happens if payments slow by 30+ days?Can you still pay crews, buy materials, and cover overhead?
Diversify Your Job Mix
Don’t wait until winter to sell retail or maintenance workBalance your pipeline now to smooth cash flow later
We l ran this exact model in August for a roofer in Texas.
He realized if even 20% of his insurance jobs didn’t close next spring, he’d have a $74K gap in Q2 cash flow.
That gave him enough time to build up his retail side, add some off-season tune-up work, and lock in better crew hours.
He won’t be caught off guard.
Get Your Free Guide
So what's your next steps?
If your roofing business depends on insurance jobs, now’s the time to forecast the shift — not after you’ve already got six jobs in limbo and no money coming in.
Let’s run your 2026 forecast together.
We’ll look at job mix, payout timing, and profit margins under the new rules.
Then build a plan that keeps your business steady no matter how insurance changes hit.
Book a Profit and Tax Analysis and we’ll break down the data behind your numbers.
Let us know what you think in the comments!
